Simulating heat stress indices of HSDD, HSF, and HSDU in rainfed wheat under different sowing dates in Lorestan Province

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Department of Agriculture, Faculty of Agriculture, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran

2 Department of Plant Production and Genetics Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran

Abstract

Introduction
Climate change has intensified the frequency and severity of heat stress events, especially in semi-arid regions where rainfed wheat is a staple crop. In such environments, heat stress during sensitive growth stages like flowering and grain filling can drastically reduce grain yield. Lorestan province located in west part of Iran that characterized by diverse microclimates and particularly vulnerable to these effects. Adapting sowing dates has been proposed as a practical approach to minimize heat-related yield losses. This study evaluated the effect of different sowing dates on heat stress risk and wheat grain yield in five different locations in Lorestan using the APSIM-Wheat simulation model over 41-year long-term period (1980–2020).
 
Materials and methods
Long-term daily weather data, including minimum and maximum temperatures, solar radiation, and precipitation, were collected from five meteorological stations including Khorramabad, Borujerd, Aligudarz, Kuhdasht, and Pol-e Dokhtar. The APSIM-Wheat model was used to simulate the impact of heat stress on rainfed wheat. Four sowing dates—October 7, October 20, October 31, and November 10—were simulated for each location. To quantify heat stress during the flowering to physiological maturity stages, three thermal stress indices were used: (1) heat stress frequency (HSF), defined as the number of days with maximum temperature (Tmax) exceeding 30°C; (2) heat stress duration (HSDU), referring to the length of consecutive days under such conditions that lasted for 2 days and more; and (3) heat stress degree days (HSDD), the cumulative sum of daily heat stress degree-days, calculated as Tmax − 30 on days when Tmax ≥ 30°C. This index quantifies the cumulative intensity of heat stress over the growing season. The model also simulated grain yield to examine how sowing date shifts influence productivity.
 
Results and discussion
Simulation results demonstrated that both of frequency and intensity of heat stress increased with delayed sowing, particularly in lowland and warmer regions. For instance, in Pol-e Dokhtar, one of the warmest study areas, early sowing on October 7 led to HSF of 16.5 number season-1, with HSDD of 64.2 °Cd, and HSDU of 5.5 days. In contrast, late sowing on October 31 reduced HSDU and HSF to 2.1 days and 1.6 number season-1, respectively, with HSDD of 4.6 °Cd in Pol-e Dokhtar. Correspondingly, the mean grain yield increased significantly with later sowing dates (3.98 t ha-1). In cold regions like Aligudarz and Borujerd, early sowing on October 7 resulted in the lowest values of HSDU (1.7 and 1.8 days), HSF (2.1 and 2.8 number season⁻¹), and HSDD (6.8 and 2.5 °Cd) in Aligudarz and Borujerd, respectively. Moreover, in these areas, shifting the sowing date from early (October 7) to late (November 10) led to a decrease in grain yield—from 2.9 t ha-1 to 1.3 t ha-1 in Borujerd, and from 4.6 ha-1 to 2.5 ha-1 in Aligudarz. The results of the correlation analysis among the studied traits revealed a significant negative correlation between grain yield and the heat stress indices, including heat stress HSDD, HSF, and HSDU, with correlation coefficients of –0.63, –0.59, and –0.55, respectively. These negative relationships indicate the detrimental effects of heat stress during reproductive stages—particularly flowering and grain filling—which can lead to reduced grain number per spike, lower 1000-grain weight, and ultimately, decreased grain yield.
 
Conclusion
This study highlights heat stress—particularly during reproductive and grain-filling stages—as a key limiting factor for rainfed wheat yield across various climates in Lorestan province. The intensity of heat stress strongly depends on geographic location and sowing date, with early sowing increasing stress in warm areas like Pol-e Dokhtar but reducing it and improving yield in colder regions like Borujerd and Aligudarz. Overall, the findings underscore the need to integrate climate analysis, optimized sowing dates, and adaptive agronomic practices to develop resilient cropping calendars under rising temperatures and climate change.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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Environmental Stresses in Crop Sciences

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 02 May 2026

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  • Receive Date: 15 June 2025
  • Revise Date: 30 August 2025
  • Accept Date: 01 September 2025

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