ارزیابی ریسک ناشی از تنش گرما در ذرت دانه‌ای استان خوزستان تحت شرایط تغییر اقلیم

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش‌آموخته دکتری گروه کشاورزی اکولوژیک، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران.

2 دانشیار گروه کشاورزی اکولوژیک، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران.

3 استادیار گروه کشاورزی اکولوژیک، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

این تحقیق به منظور ارزیابی ریسک ناشی از تنش گرما در ذرت دانه‌ای استان خوزستان تحت شرایط افزایش دمای ناشی از تغییر اقلیم در شش شهرستان از استان خوزستان انجام شد. بدین منظور، ابتدا اقلیم آینده این شهرستان‌ها با استفاده از داده‌های اقلیمی بلندمدت دوره پایه و با استفاده از روش AgMIP تحت دو سناریوی اقلیمی RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 برای دوره 2069 -2040 تولید شدند و سپس از مدل APSIM برای شبیه‌سازی رشد و عملکرد ذرت دانه‌ای استفاده شد. نتایج این تحقیق نشان داد که میانگین دما در طول فصل رشد ذرت در استان خوزستان تحت RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 نسبت به دوره پایه (27.2 درجه‌ سانتی گراد) به‌ترتیب 8.5 و 34.57 درصد افزایش داشت. با در نظر گرفتن متوسط کل استان، میانگین عملکرد و تعداد دانه در مترمربع در دوره پایه 8.8 تن در هکتار و 2305.7 دانه در متر مربع بود. این مقدار در سال 2050 تحت RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 به ترتیب به 8.5 و 8.7 تن در هکتار و 2227.3 و 2254.3 دانه در متر مربع کاهش یافتند. با در نظر گرفتن متوسط همه تاریخ کاشت‌ها، مناطق و دوره‌های آینده تغییر اقلیم در استان خوزستان، احتمال تشکیل عملکرد اقتصادی، عملکرد غیر اقتصادی و عملکرد صفر به ترتیب 45.4، 13.5 و 41.2 درصد می‌باشد. به طور کلی نتایج این تحقیق نشان داد که تاریخ کاشت مرسوم در منطقه (سی‌ام بهمن) تاریخ کاشت مناسبی برای دوره پایه و آینده نیست و تاریخ کاشت زودهنگام (دوازده بهمن) در اکثر مناطق می‌تواند به عنوان یک راهکار سازگاری موثر برای کاهش ریسک ناشی از افزایش دماهای حدی هم در دوره پایه و هم در دوره آینده در نظر گرفته شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


Abbas Torki, T., Mojaddam, M., Abadouz, G.R., 2011. Study of water stress on morphological characters of corn (Zea mays L.) hybrids in south Khouzestan condition. p. 1836–1842. In: Proceedings of the 1th National Conference on Climate Change and its Impact on Agriculture and the Environment, 14 Aug. 2011. Urmia, Iran. [In Persian with English Summary].

AgMIP, 2013a. Guide for Running AgMIP Climate Scenario Generation Tools with Rin Windows. AgMIP, from: http://www.agmip.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Guide-for-Running-AgMIP-Climate-Scenario-Generation-with-R-v2.3.pdf

AgMIP, 2013b. The Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project C3MP: An Initiative of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project. C3MP Protocols and Procedures. AgMIP, from: http://research.agmip.org/ download/attachments/1998899/C3MP+Protocols+v2.pdf

Ainsworth, E.A., Ort, D.R., 2010. How do we improve crop production in a warming world? Plant Physiology. 154, 526–530.

Araya, A., Hoogenboom, G., Luedeling, E., M. Hadgu, K., Kisekka, I., Martorano, L.G., 2015. Assessment of maize growth and yield using crop models under present and future climate in southwestern Ethiopia. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 214, 252-265.

Cairns, J.E., Crossa, J., Zaidi, P.H., Grudloyma, P., Sanchez, C., Araus, J.L., Thaitad, S., Makumbi, D., Magorokosho, C., Bänziger, M., Menkir, A., 2013. Identification of drought, heat, and combined drought and heat tolerant donors in maize. Crop Science. 53(4), 1335-1346.

Crafts-Brander, S.J., Salvucci, M.E., 2002. Sensitivity of photosynthesis in a C4 plant, maize to heat stress. Plant Physiology. 129, 1773-1780.

Dashtbozorgi, A., Alijani, B., Jafarpur, Z., Shakiba, A., 2015. Simulatiing ExtremeTemperature Indicators Based on RCP Scenarios: The Case of Khuzestan Province. Geography and Environmental Hazards. 4, 105- 123. [In Persian with English Summary].

Dupuis, I., Dumas, C., 1990. Influence of temperature stress on in vitro fertilization and heat shock protein synthesis in maize (Zea mays L.) reproductive tissues. Plant Physiology. 94, 665–670.

Hatfield, J.L., Prueger, J.H., 2015. Temperature extremes: effect on plant growth and development. Weather and Climate Extremes. 10, 4-10.

Hawkins, E., Fricker, T.E., Challinor, A.J., Ferro, C.A., Ho, C.K., Osborne, T.M., 2013. Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s. Global Change Biology. 19(3), 937-947.

Hay, R.K.M. Walker, A.J., 1989. An Introduction to the Physiology of Crop Yield. Longman Scientific and Technical Press Inc., New York.

Hoogenboom, G., Jones, J.W., Porter, C.H., Wilkens, P.W., Boote, K.J., Batchelor, W.D., Hunt, L.A., Tsuji, G.Y., 2003. Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer Version 4.0. Vol. 1: Overview. University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI.

Iranian Ministry of Agriculture Jihad, 2013. Agricultural statistics. Iranian Ministry of Agriculture Jihad, Department of Planning and Economically, Center of Information and Communication Technology, first volume, 2012-2013, Iran. [In Persian].

Jans, W.W.P., Jacobs, C.M.J., Kruijt, B., Elebrs, J.A., Barendse, S. and Moors, E.J., 2010. Carbon exchange of a maize (Zea mays L.) crop: Influence of phenology. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment. 139, 325- 335.

Keating, B.A., Carberry, P.S., Hammer, G.L., Probert, M.E., Robertson, M.J., Holzworth, D., Huth, N.I., Hargreaves, J.N.G., Meinke, H., Hochman, Z., McLean, G., Verburg, K., Snow, V., Dimes, J.P., Silburn, M., Wang, E., Brown, S., Bristow, K.L., Asseng, S., Chapman, S., McCown, R.L., Freebairn, D.M., Smith, C.J., 2003. An overview of APSIM, a model designed for farming systems simulation. European Journal of Agronomy. 18, 267– 288.

Liu, Y., Wang, E., Yang, X., Wang, J., 2010. Contributions of climatic and crop varietal changes to crop production in the North China Plain, since 1980s. Global Change Biology. 16, 2287–2299.

Liu, Z., Hubbard, K.G., Lin, X., Yang, X., 2013. Negative effects of climate warming on maize yield are reversed by the changing of sowing date and cultivar selection in Northeast China. Global Change Biology. 19(11), 3481-3492.

Lobell, D.B., Burke, M.B., 2010. On the use of statistical models to predict crop yield responses to climate change. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 150, 1443-1452.

Marengo, J.A., Chou, S.C., Torres, R.R., Giarolla, A., Alves, L.M., Lyra, A., 2014. Climate change in central and South America: recent trends، future projections، and impacts on regional agriculture. Technical Report.

Mera, R.J., Niyogi, D., Buol, G.S., Wilkerson, G.G., Semazzi, F.H.M., 2006. Potential individual versus simultaneous climate change effects on soybean (C3) and maize (C4) crops: An agrotechnology model based study. Global and Planetary Change. 54, 163–182.

Moini, S, Javadi, S, Dehghan Manshadi, M., 2011. Feasibility study of solar energy in Iran and preparing radiation atlas. Recent Advances in Environment, Energy Systems and Naval Science. 2011, 1- 7.

Muchow, R.C., Sinclair, T.R., Bennett, J.M., 1990. Temperature and solar radiation effects on potential maize yield across locations. Agronomy Journal. 82, 338-343.

Prescott, J.A., 1940. Evaporation from a water surface in relation to solar radiation. Transactions of the Royal Society of South Australia. 64(1), 114-118.

R Core Team, 2016. R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. From: https://www.R-project.org/.

Rahimi-Moghaddam, S., Kambouzia, J., Deihimfard. R., 2016. Estimation of parameters for some dominant maize (Zea mays L.) cultivars of Iran for using in APSIM mechanistic model. Electronic Journal of Crop Production. 64(1), 129-147. [In Persian with English Summary].

Rahimi-Moghaddam, S., Kambouzia, J., Deihimfard. R., 2018. Adaptation strategies to lessen negative impact of climate change on grain maize under hot climatic conditions: A model-based assessment. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 253, 1-14.

Rowhani, P., Lobell, D.B., Linderman, M., Ramankutty, N., 2011. Climate variability and crop production in Tanzania. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 151, 449-460.

Ruane, A.C., Cecil, L.D., Horton, R.M., 2013. Climate change impact uncertainties for maize in Panama: farm information, climate projections, and yield sensitivities. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 170, 132–145.

Schoper, J.B., Lambert, R.J., Vasilas, B.L., 1987a. Pollen viability, pollen shedding and combining ability for tassel heat tolerance in maize. Crop Science. 27, 27-31.

Schoper, J.B., Lambert, R.J., Vasilas, B.L., Westgate, M.E., 1987b. Plant factors controlling seed set in maize: the influence of silk, pollen and ear-leaf water status and tassel heat treatment at pollination. Plant Physiology. 83, 121-125.

Seifert, E. 2014. OriginPro 9.1: Scientific Data Analysis and Graphing Software—Software Review. Journal of Chemical Information and Modeling. 54, 1552–1552.

Singh, V., Nguyen, C.T., van Oosterom, E.J., Chapman, S.C., Jordan, D.R., Hammer, G.L., 2015. Sorghum genotypes differ in high temperature responses for seed set. Field Crops Research. 171, 32-40.

Stone, P. 2001. The effects of heat stress on cereal yield and quality. In: Basara, A.S. (eds.), Crop Responses and Adaptations to Temperature Stress. Food Products Press, Binghamton, USA. pp. 243-291.

Teixeira, E.I., Fischer, G., van Velthuizen, H., Walter, C., Ewert, F., 2013. Global hot-spots of heat stress on agricultural crops due to climate change. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 170, 206-215.

Tubiello, F.N., Donatelli, M., Rosenzweig, C., Stockle, C.O., 2000. Effects of climate change and elevated CO2 on cropping systems: model predictions at two Italian locations. European Journal of Agronomy. 12, 179–189.

Tubiello, F.N., Soussana, J.F.O., Howden, S.M., 2007. Crop and pasture response to climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 104, 19686–19690.

Wang, J., Wang, E., Luo, Q., Kirby, M., 2009. Modeling the sensitivity of wheat growth and water balance to climate change in Southeast Australia. Climatic Change. 96, 79–96.

Wilby, R.L., Charles, S.P., Zorita, E., Timbal, B., Whetton, P., Mearns, L.O., 2004. Guidelines for use of climate scenarios developed from statistical downscaling methods. In: IPCC Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impacts and Climate Analysis.

Zheng, B., Chenu, K., Dreccer, M.F., Chapman, S.C., 2012. Breeding for the future: what are the potential impacts of future frost and heat events on sowing and flowering time requirements for Australian bread wheat (Triticum aestivium) varieties? Global Change Biology. 18, 2899–2914.